66 The IPCC SSP-RCP scenarios pathways considered for our Physical Risk Assessment are listed below 1. Low emissions pathway: IPCC SSP1-2.6 (estimate for temperature rise by 2100 +1.8°C) outlines a pathway that emphasizes the importance of robust climate policies and substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. 2. Medium-to-high emissions pathway: IPCC SSP3-7.0 (estimate for temperature rise by 2100 by +2.8 to 3.2°C) represents a high-emissions pathway with an idea if it continues like business-as-usual characterized by minimal international cooperation on climate policies. 3. High emissions pathway: IPCC SSP5-8.5 (estimate for temperature rise by 2100 +4.4°C) outlines a high-emissions pathway marked by ongoing reliance on fossil fuels and accelerated economic growth. The NGFS scenarios considered for our Transition Risk Assessment are listed below: 1. Below 2°C scenario: Below 2°C gradually increases the stringency of climate policies, giving a 67% chance of limiting global warming to below 2°C. This scenario assumes that climate policies are introduced immediately and become gradually more stringent though not as high as in Net Zero 2050. Net-zero CO2 emissions are achieved after 2070. Physical and transition risks are both relatively low. 2. Net-Zero 2050 scenario: The Net Zero 2050 scenario represents a highly ambitious pathway aiming to limit global warming to 1.5°C through rigorous climate policies and significant innovation. This scenario targets achieving net-zero CO2 emissions by around 2050. 3. Delayed Transition scenario: The Delayed Transition scenario assumes that global annual emissions will continue to rise till 2030, with no significant reduction efforts before then. To limit global warming to below 2°C, strong and immediate climate policies will be required starting in 2030. 4. Divergent Net-Zero scenario: The Divergent Net Zero scenario achieves net-zero emissions by 2050. Divergent Net Zero assumes more stringent climate policies specifically in the transportation and buildings sectors, leading to a faster phase-out of fossil fuels.
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